Campinas, SP, 30 – A vitória do Palmeiras sobre o América-MG na quarta-feira, somado aos tropeços de Flamengo e Botafogo, permitem ao time paulista ser campeão já na 37ª rodada do Campeonato Brasileiro, a ser disputada no fim de semana. A equipe de Abel Ferreira tem três pontos de vantagem na liderança, a dois jogos do fim. Se vencer o Fluminense, uma combinação de resultados já garante o título matemático – o 12º Brasileiro de sua história.
A possibilidade do time alviverde se sagrar campeão depende, obrigatoriamente, de tropeços de Flamengo, Atlético-MG e Botafogo na rodada. Com isso, o Palmeiras só poderia comemorar, de fato, a partir das 20h30 (horário de Brasília). A Confederação Brasileira de Futebol (CBF) definiu que apenas os jogos da 38ª rodada serão simultâneos. Com isso, Atlético-MG entra em campo no sábado, Palmeiras e Flamengo às 16h no domingo, enquanto o Botafogo, dos que disputam o título, joga apenas às 18h30.
Assim, a matemática do Palmeiras é simples: vencer e torcer para que seus adversários, obrigatoriamente, não vençam seus respectivos jogos (Flamengo x Cuiabá, Atlético-MG x São Paulo e Botafogo x Cruzeiro). Esse é o cenário mais simples, mas não é o único: existe a possibilidade de o Palmeiras conquistar o Brasileirão mesmo se empatar com o Fluminense.
Para isso, novamente precisaria que os demais postulantes ao título perdessem seus jogos, mas com um agravante: Grêmio e Red Bull Bragantino não podem vencer seus próximos dois jogos. As equipes ainda jogam nesta quinta-feira pela 36ª rodada e, se vencerem, chegam a 62 pontos, o que permite que alcancem, matematicamente, o Palmeiras. Novo triunfo no fim de semana – contando com o empate do time de Abel – faz com que as equipes fiquem a dois pontos da liderança. Bragantino e Grêmio enfrentam Goiás e Fortaleza nesta quinta-feira e Coritiba e Vasco, no domingo.
E SE NÃO VENCER?
Caso vença o Fluminense, mas os rivais não tropeçarem, o Palmeiras permanecerá na liderança, com três pontos de vantagem. Não poderá celebrar o título no domingo, mas estará com uma mão na taça por causa do saldo de gols. Antes da 37ª rodada, o Palmeiras tem sete de vantagem sobre o Botafogo, oito sobre o Atlético-MG e 16 sobre o Flamengo.
Com o triunfo de todos os quatro times na penúltima rodada, apenas uma derrota do Palmeiras contra o Cruzeiro e goleadas de Botafogo, Atlético-MG ou Flamengo tirariam o título das mãos da equipe alviverde. De acordo com o Departamento de Matemática da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), o time de Abel saltou de 55,3% para 85,9% nas chances de ser campeão.
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